According to @KobeissiLetter, rate cut expectations for 2025 are dropping significantly. Initially, prediction markets anticipated a base case of 3 interest rate cuts in 2025, but this has now fallen to a median forecast of just 2.6 cuts, as reported by @Kalshi. The likelihood of a rate cut before June 2025 has also decreased, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards a less dovish monetary policy outlook.

According to @KobeissiLetter, rate cut expectations for 2025 are dropping significantly. Initially, prediction markets anticipated a base case of 3 interest rate cuts in 2025, but this forecast has now decreased to a median of just 2.6 cuts, as reported by @Kalshi. Additionally, the likelihood of a rate cut occurring before June 2025 has also diminished.

According to @EleanorTerrett, Robinhood CEO @vladtenev has announced the company's move into prediction markets, inspired by the successes of @Polymarket and @Kalshi. This strategic expansion aims to integrate with digital platforms, as highlighted by discussions with @MyriadMarkets founders about their onchain prediction markets.

According to Polynomial, the Polynomial Portals concept introduces a novel approach to crypto trading by enabling trade triggers powered by real-world events. This innovation allows for automatic adjustments to ETH positions based on shifts in Fed sentiment or scaling into perpetual contracts when prediction markets signal a regime change, potentially offering traders a more responsive and dynamic trading strategy.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, Kalshi now controls 7.5% of the US Derivatives Market, marking it as a 'covered' exchange. This significant milestone is attributed to the exchange surpassing $2 billion in trade volume, indicating rapid evolution in prediction markets.

According to @KobeissiLetter, prediction markets have recently adjusted their forecasts for Bitcoin's bottom price in 2025 to $62,000, marking a decrease of approximately $18,000 since February 23rd. This shift indicates a potential bearish outlook for Bitcoin's price trajectory. Furthermore, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 before 2026 has also decreased, suggesting tempered expectations for significant bullish trends in the near future.

According to @KobeissiLetter, recent data from prediction markets indicate that the expected bottom for Bitcoin in 2025 has been adjusted to $62,000. This forecast has decreased by approximately $18,000 since February 23rd, as reported by @Kalshi. Additionally, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 before 2026 has diminished, impacting traders' long-term positioning strategies.

According to @KobeissiLetter, prediction markets now forecast a base case of US inflation rising to 4.0% by 2025, as per data from @Kalshi. This signifies a substantial increase from the 2.3% inflation expectation recorded on December 1st, 2024. Additionally, there is a growing 22% probability that inflation could exceed 4.0%, indicating potential volatility in economic conditions. Traders should closely monitor these shifts, as they could impact investment strategies and interest rate expectations.

According to @KobeissiLetter, prediction markets, as reported by @Kalshi, now predict a base case of US inflation rising to 4.0% in 2025. This marks a significant shift from the December 1st projection of 2.3% inflation for the same year. Additionally, there is now a 22% chance that inflation could exceed this 4% mark, indicating potential upward pressure on interest rates and market volatility.

According to @KobeissiLetter, prediction markets now forecast Bitcoin rising to $124,000 as the base case for 2025, a decrease of $25,000 since January, as reported by @Kalshi. Furthermore, the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 this year is now seen at just 36%.

According to @KobeissiLetter, prediction markets, as reported by @Kalshi, now anticipate that DOGE will be involved in cutting 317,000 government jobs by 2025. This figure has risen significantly from the 200,000 job cuts predicted just nine days ago. Traders should closely monitor these developments as they may impact market dynamics and sentiment around DOGE.

According to @KobeissiLetter, prediction markets now forecast that DOGE will be responsible for cutting 317,000 government employees by 2025 as reported by @Kalshi. This is a significant increase from the 200,000 job cuts expected just nine days prior, highlighting a rapidly changing market sentiment that could influence DOGE trading strategies.

According to @Kalshi, prediction markets are now forecasting that DOGE will be responsible for cutting 317,000 government jobs in 2025. This is a significant increase from the 200,000 expected job cuts predicted just nine days earlier, highlighting a potential impact on the market due to policy changes. Traders should monitor DOGE-related developments and government policy announcements, as these could influence market movements and job security within the public sector.

According to @KobeissiLetter, prediction markets are now projecting that DOGE will influence the reduction of 317,000 government employees in 2025, as cited from @Kalshi. This represents a significant increase from the previous estimate of 200,000 job cuts just 9 days ago, indicating a growing expectation of DOGE's impact on government employment.

According to @Kalshi, prediction markets currently indicate a 74% probability of Grok being the leading AI globally this month. This surge follows the release of Grok-3, which has increased Grok's odds by 50 percentage points. Investors should note that Grok-3's benchmark results display superior performance, potentially influencing AI market dynamics and associated trading strategies.

According to @Kalshi, prediction markets now indicate a 74% probability of Grok being the top AI globally this month. This marks a 50 percentage point increase following the launch of Grok-3, which has shown superior performance in benchmark tests. This significant shift in odds suggests increased market confidence in Grok-3's capabilities, potentially influencing AI investment strategies and market positions.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, prediction markets, as reported by @Kalshi, currently see a 23% probability of interest rate hikes returning in 2025. This sentiment follows a significant increase in CPI inflation, which recorded its largest month-over-month rise of 0.5% since August 2023. Additionally, PPI inflation has unexpectedly surged to its highest level since February 2023. These inflation metrics are critical for traders to consider as they may influence future monetary policy adjustments, potentially impacting cryptocurrency markets sensitive to interest rate changes.

According to @KobeissiLetter, prediction markets now see a 23% chance of rate hikes returning in 2025, as reported by @Kalshi. This follows recent CPI data showing a 0.5% month-over-month increase, the largest since August 2023. Additionally, PPI inflation jumped to its highest since February 2023, which may influence interest rate expectations. Traders should consider these inflation indicators and market expectations when forming their trading strategies.

According to @KobeissiLetter, prediction markets are anticipating that 238,000 jobs were added to the US economy in January. Moreover, there's a 28% chance that the number of jobs added could exceed 300,000, which is considerably higher than Wall Street's forecasts. This could have significant implications for trading strategies, as a higher-than-expected jobs report may influence market volatility and investor sentiment.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, prediction markets suggest the addition of 238,000 jobs to the U.S. economy in January, with a 28% probability of exceeding 300,000 jobs. This forecast significantly surpasses Wall Street's expectations, indicating potential market volatility and trading opportunities based on employment data.